WTC 2024-25: Qualification Scenarios for Top Four Teams
The race to the 2024-25 ICC World Test Championship (WTC) final at Lord’s is intensifying. South Africa, Australia, India, and Sri Lanka lead the standings. Each team is still in contention for the top two spots. However, recent Test match results have changed things. South Africa swept Sri Lanka 2-0. Meanwhile, India lost to Australia.
With at least 10 more Test matches remaining in the ongoing WTC cycle, no team is guaranteed a spot in the final yet. Let’s break down the qualification scenarios for the top four teams. We’ll assess what they need to do to secure a place in the championship match.
Current WTC Points Table Rankings
1.South Africa
South Africa’s 2-0 series win at home over Sri Lanka has put them at the top of the WTC standings. This win raised their PCT. It made them favorites to qualify for the final.
- Path to Qualification: South Africa must win one of two home Tests against Pakistan to secure a spot in the final. A split result (1-1) would leave them with a PCT of 61.11%, making it difficult for both India and Australia to surpass them.
2.Australia
Australia, after their win over India in Adelaide, has a good chance to qualify. But, they still have work to do.
- Path to Qualification: Australia must win two of their three Tests against India to qualify. A 3-2 series win would give them a cushion. They could lose both matches to Sri Lanka later and still have a PCT of 55.26. That would be enough to surpass India and Sri Lanka in the standings.
3.India
India’s hopes took a hit after their 10-wicket loss to Australia in Adelaide. The loss dropped them to second place, giving South Africa the top spot.
- Path to Qualification: India must win two and draw one of their three Tests in Australia. This would raise their PCT to 60.53%. It would secure at least second place, as it would leave Australia and Sri Lanka behind. Even if Australia wins 2-0 in Sri Lanka, their maximum PCT would only reach 57.02%.
- Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka’s hopes of qualifying took a hit after a 0-2 series loss to South Africa.
- Path to Qualification: Sri Lanka must win both Tests against Australia to reach a PCT of 53.85. However, their fate depends on other results. India needs to win one and draw another to surpass Sri Lanka. South Africa must lose both Tests to Pakistan.
Are Other Teams Still in the Race?
Pakistan
Pakistan has a slim chance of qualifying but only under very specific circumstances. They must win their two Tests against South Africa. And, they hope for a points deduction for the home side’s slow overrate. Such an occurrence, while mathematically possible, is highly unlikely.
New Zealand, England, Bangladesh, West Indies
These teams are effectively out of the race for the WTC final due to their low PCT and remaining fixtures.
The WTC qualification scenarios show a fierce battle among the top four teams. South Africa currently leads. Australia and India control their fates. Sri Lanka needs other matches to stay alive.
As the series unfolds, every Test will greatly affect the standings. It will make the road to the WTC final a thrilling chapter in cricket’s longest format.
