Can India Still Qualify for the ICC World Test Championship Final?
India now risks missing the WTC Final 2025 after a crushing defeat in the Melbourne Test. India must win the final Test in Sydney to keep their WTC Final hopes alive. The Border-Gavaskar Trophy 2024-25 is 2-1 in favor of Australia.
Here’s an analysis of the qualification scenarios for India and their competitors.
Sydney Test: A Must-Win Game for India
India’s chances depend entirely on the final Test. It starts December 3 at the Sydney Cricket Ground. Here are the scenarios:
- India Wins the Sydney Test
- India will level the series at 2-2.
- They will finish the WTC cycle with 55.26%. This keeps their qualification hopes alive.
- India Draws or Loses the Sydney Test
- India’s percentage points will drop to 51.75, eliminating them from contention for the WTC Final.
South Africa: First Team to Qualify
South Africa has already secured their spot in the WTC Final. By winning the thrilling series opener against Pakistan, they reached 66.67%. It is now impossible to lose their place, even if they lose the ongoing series against Pakistan.
Sri Lanka’s Slim Chance for Qualification
Sri Lanka is still in contention, but their fate depends on a specific set of results:
- Sydney Test Draw
- If India and Australia draw the final Test, India’s percentage points will drop to 51.75, eliminating them.
- Sri Lanka must then win both Tests in their upcoming home series against Australia.
- Sri Lanka’s points will rise to 53.85, surpassing Australia’s 53.51. This will clinch the second WTC Final spot.
Australia: One Win Away from Securing a Spot
Australia is well-placed to qualify for their second straight WTC Final.
- Win in Sydney
- A win in the final Test will qualify Australia. It does not matter how they perform in the following away series against Sri Lanka.
- Draw in Sydney
- A draw would confirm their spot. But, they must get at least one draw in the two-match Test series against Sri Lanka.
India’s Best-Case Scenario
To qualify for the WTC Final, India must win the Sydney Test. They must also hope Australia loses its away series against Sri Lanka. Here’s how this scenario plays out:
- India defeats Australia in Sydney, boosting their percentage points to 55.26.
- Australia loses both Tests or manages only draws in Sri Lanka.
- This case means India’s qualified. Australia’s points drop below India’s.
Key Dates: WTC Final 2025
The ICC World Test Championship Final 2023-25 will be held at Lord’s, London, starting on June 11, 2025.
India must win in Sydney to reach the WTC Final. They also need other results to go their way. India must defy the odds to reach their third straight WTC Final. South Africa is in. Australia has the upper hand.
